Sorry I never got around to posting this last week, I had some stuff I was busy with. I did not do very well with my predictions for the IFL show, I got most of the fights right but I missed two of the three title fights: I picked McGivern over Dan Miller and I thought Taurovicius would beat Ryan Schultz. I did however pick Roy Nelson to beat down Brad Imes. It was a good card, unfortunately the IFL will only be around for a few more months.
I did very well for my Sengoku predictions. I successfully picked every fight correctly, I got most of the finishes too. The only fight I have seen from the card is Josh Barnett vs Jeff Monson, it was a decent fight, not super exciting but with some good back and forth action.
I'll write some more once I see more fights. Also early this morning in Japan is a DEEP card featuring Dokonjonoske Mishima vs Mazakatsu Imanari, it should be a very good fight, and I think Imanari will win by one of his signature leg locks.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
The UFC Heavyweight Division
MMA fans, I present to you the UFC Heavyweight division:
The Top Ten in the UFC
1. Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera- A great champion, a great heavyweight, in fact the second best heavyweight in MMA. Would be a perfect champion if not for the glaring losses to Fedor.
2. Fabricio Werdum- A very good jiu jitsu player, his standup has improved but still a weakness. He has wins over Alexander Emilianenko, Gabriel Gonzaga, and Alistair Overeem. His losses are to Sergei Kharitonov, Noguiera, and Andrei Arlovski. He is a good fighter, definitely top ten, but not quite top five.
3. Gabriel Gonzaga- Despite two losses in a row, Gonzaga is still an elite, top ten fighter. He is great on the ground and has good ground skills. His win over Cro Cop was not a fluke, Gonzaga definitely has legitimate skills. His glaring weakness is his heart. In the most recent fight with Werdum he looked like he gave up after Werdum started with the knees, and in the fight with Couture his offense became limited (however in all fairness his nose was broken and bloody from Couture's illegal headbutt.)
4. Heath Herring- Here is where it starts to drop off a bit. Herring is a good fighter, but he is not great and he is not top ten. He is a rough fighter, a little more polished than a brawler but by no means an elite striker. He is tough but he has 3 losses to the UFC champion Noguiera. The win over Cheick Kongo was a good win.
5. Cheick Kongo- Needs to work his jiu jitsu and takedown defense. He has good striking skills, good kicks and knees, and his takedowns are good too. However, his takedown defense and jiu jitsu is terrible. When on his back Kongo looks lost, he needs to be more comfortable on the ground if he is to be an elite fighter. He also had a terrible game plan in trying to turn his fight with Herring into a ground war. Additionally, I think he's a dirty fighter, 5 knees to the balls in his fight with Cro Cop....there is no way he accidentally kneed Mirko in the balls 5 times.
6. Brandon Vera- Vera is an extremely skilled young fighter. His kicks and knees are nasty stuff, and along with that he has a solid jiu jitsu game. I don't know what the hell he was doing in his fight with Tim Sylvia. After he broke his hand, all he did was go for the clinch against Tim, he fought a boring, ineffective fight. With some more seasoning he could be a very good fighter, but he is also very small for the weight class and he could potentially have even more success at 205.
7. Frank Mir- I talked about Frank Mir in my last post, and I don't think much of him as a fighter.
8. Antoni Hardonk- A very skilled kickboxer, but with a typical Dutch ground game, terrible. His takedown defense is terrible, and his jiu jitsu is not much better.
9. Eddie Sanchez- Oh yes, Eddie Sanchez is a top ten heavyweight in the UFC.
10. Christian Wellisch- Are there any other UFC heavyweights with at least two wins in the UFC?
Up and Comers
Its official, the heavyweight division is the weakest in the UFC.
The Top Ten in the UFC
1. Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera- A great champion, a great heavyweight, in fact the second best heavyweight in MMA. Would be a perfect champion if not for the glaring losses to Fedor.
2. Fabricio Werdum- A very good jiu jitsu player, his standup has improved but still a weakness. He has wins over Alexander Emilianenko, Gabriel Gonzaga, and Alistair Overeem. His losses are to Sergei Kharitonov, Noguiera, and Andrei Arlovski. He is a good fighter, definitely top ten, but not quite top five.
3. Gabriel Gonzaga- Despite two losses in a row, Gonzaga is still an elite, top ten fighter. He is great on the ground and has good ground skills. His win over Cro Cop was not a fluke, Gonzaga definitely has legitimate skills. His glaring weakness is his heart. In the most recent fight with Werdum he looked like he gave up after Werdum started with the knees, and in the fight with Couture his offense became limited (however in all fairness his nose was broken and bloody from Couture's illegal headbutt.)
4. Heath Herring- Here is where it starts to drop off a bit. Herring is a good fighter, but he is not great and he is not top ten. He is a rough fighter, a little more polished than a brawler but by no means an elite striker. He is tough but he has 3 losses to the UFC champion Noguiera. The win over Cheick Kongo was a good win.
5. Cheick Kongo- Needs to work his jiu jitsu and takedown defense. He has good striking skills, good kicks and knees, and his takedowns are good too. However, his takedown defense and jiu jitsu is terrible. When on his back Kongo looks lost, he needs to be more comfortable on the ground if he is to be an elite fighter. He also had a terrible game plan in trying to turn his fight with Herring into a ground war. Additionally, I think he's a dirty fighter, 5 knees to the balls in his fight with Cro Cop....there is no way he accidentally kneed Mirko in the balls 5 times.
6. Brandon Vera- Vera is an extremely skilled young fighter. His kicks and knees are nasty stuff, and along with that he has a solid jiu jitsu game. I don't know what the hell he was doing in his fight with Tim Sylvia. After he broke his hand, all he did was go for the clinch against Tim, he fought a boring, ineffective fight. With some more seasoning he could be a very good fighter, but he is also very small for the weight class and he could potentially have even more success at 205.
7. Frank Mir- I talked about Frank Mir in my last post, and I don't think much of him as a fighter.
8. Antoni Hardonk- A very skilled kickboxer, but with a typical Dutch ground game, terrible. His takedown defense is terrible, and his jiu jitsu is not much better.
9. Eddie Sanchez- Oh yes, Eddie Sanchez is a top ten heavyweight in the UFC.
10. Christian Wellisch- Are there any other UFC heavyweights with at least two wins in the UFC?
Up and Comers
- Brock Lesnar- I don't by the hype quite yet, but he does have tremendous physics skills.
- Cain Velasquez- By far the best prospect in the division
- Shane Carwin- I'm interested to see how he will do against Wellish at UFC 84
- Mark Coleman- Well past his prime, this veteran needs to settle down and be content with his past accomplishments. He will get destroyed by Lesnar come August.
- Justin McCully- a very mediocre fighter
- Brad Morris- As an Australian fighter, his skill set is not at the level it needs to be for competing in the UFC
- Neil Wain- an awful, awful fighter
Its official, the heavyweight division is the weakest in the UFC.
Noguiera and Mir as TUF coaches
So, I've heard the next coaches of The Ultimate Fighter reality show will be Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera and Frank Mir. I have several questions pertaining to this move by Zuffa:
1. Why is Frank Mir getting a title shot?
2. Why isn't Arlovski getting a title shot?
3. Why is Nogueira being benches until December for a reality TV show?
4. Why is this show still around?
5. Who made this awful decision?
I'm usually not much of a Zuffa basher, but the heavyweight title being sidelined until most like December is...frustrating to say the least. This is a terrible move by Zuffa, and I think its sad that the Heavyweight division is so abismal that Frank Mir is getting a title shot. Mir is 3-2 in his last 5 fights since he came back from his motorcycle accident. That includes wins over pro-wrestler Brock Lesnar, kickboxer Antoni Hardonk, and a medicore fighter in Dan Christenson. He got TKO'd by Marcio Cruz!!! "Pe de Pano" is a good fighter, but his punches are amazingly weak, its sad that Frank Mir got TKO'd by him. And lets not forget Mir getting lit up by Brandon Vera. Its just sad that Mir is fighting for a title, at least Noguiera gets to showcase some skills to American fans who are not yet aquainted with him.
1. Why is Frank Mir getting a title shot?
2. Why isn't Arlovski getting a title shot?
3. Why is Nogueira being benches until December for a reality TV show?
4. Why is this show still around?
5. Who made this awful decision?
I'm usually not much of a Zuffa basher, but the heavyweight title being sidelined until most like December is...frustrating to say the least. This is a terrible move by Zuffa, and I think its sad that the Heavyweight division is so abismal that Frank Mir is getting a title shot. Mir is 3-2 in his last 5 fights since he came back from his motorcycle accident. That includes wins over pro-wrestler Brock Lesnar, kickboxer Antoni Hardonk, and a medicore fighter in Dan Christenson. He got TKO'd by Marcio Cruz!!! "Pe de Pano" is a good fighter, but his punches are amazingly weak, its sad that Frank Mir got TKO'd by him. And lets not forget Mir getting lit up by Brandon Vera. Its just sad that Mir is fighting for a title, at least Noguiera gets to showcase some skills to American fans who are not yet aquainted with him.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Upcoming Cards
Friday is the IFL card, I'll be going over that, and May 18 a new WVR Sengoku card. Both cards have good fights, and I'll be posting full predictions and more.
My Thoughts on Dream 3
Dream 3 was a great card, I went 5 for 8 which I'm not so happy about, and I have seen the fights online so here's what I thought:
Uno vs. Ishida- As much as I hate Caol Uno, its good that Ishida is out of the tournament. I think Kawajiri was fighting tentatively with the thought that he would have to fight hit teammate Ishida at some point, but now I think Kawajiri will be a little more aggressive in trying to win the grand prix. Uno did look good with good standup and good takedown defense, Ishida basically had no answer for Uno's gameplan. I think Ishida needs to drop to 145 where he could outwrestle anyone, hes a very good fighter but guys like Frankie Edgar and Ishida can only get to a cetain level at 155.
Alvarez vs. Hansen- I have to say I'm very proud I called this fight perfectly. Alvarez did exactly what I thought he would do in out muscling Hansen with strong takedowns and battering him with quick hands, he even had a nice head kick at the end of the fight. Hansen did fight back though, he had great submission attempts and fought back on the feet. I said this fight could be fight of the year, theres a chance it could be, but there are seven more months left this year and many more fights to come.
Kawajiri vs. Buscape- Basically went exactly as I thought, Kawajiri pounded on Buscape, it was good to see him more aggressive than his last fight, but Kawajiri should be able to finish fights like this. Hopefully was Kawajiri fights Caol Uno he will be motivated through bad blood to go for a finish. And Buscape, he's a good fighter, but in marquee matchups he just doesn't come through.
Mayhem vs. Shibata- Mayhem did what I thought he would, he came out goofy and beat the shit out of the can he was fighting. Hopefully next round of the tournament Mayhem will fight a more serious opponent.
Melvin Manhoef vs. Dae Won Kim- Melvin Manhoef should not have been fighting. He got knocked out two weeks ago by Remy Bonjasky, hes still bruised and recovering. The fact that judoka Dae Won Kim almost knocked him out is scary, Manhoef was obviously still shaky from getting KO'd. He did manage to pull out the win, but he should not have been rocked in the fight.
Jung Bu-Kyung vs. Daisuke Nakamura- I'm not that surprised Nakamura won, he does have much more experience that Bu-Kyung, but I am a little disappointed in the Korean judoka's performance. I think Bu-Kyung could have done better in the fight, and I hope he doesn't give up on MMA quite yet. Nakamura showed he has good skills, but beating Kyung on the feet doesn't solidifiy him as top talent.
Diaz vs. Inoue- Nick Diaz won a quick boxing match. It was good to see Nick Diaz looking a little faster, I think hes much better at 167 than 160, I think the weight cut makes him a little too sluggish. He also displayed a much better attitude in the fight, something that was good to see. Inoue was tough, he was scrappy, but he didn't have the skills to hang in there with a good fighter in Diaz. I am very excited to see Diaz fight Hayato "Mach" Sakurai in July, I think that will be a great fight.
Maruyama vs. Yamazaki- I got this fight wrong as I didn't know much about either fighter. I underestimated team Grabaka fighter Yamazaki, he was able to get the fight to the ground and use superior skills to maintain dominant position and go for submissions. Its also great that Dream is planning on showcasing the 145 division, there are some really great fighters in that weight class and it will be nice to see another organization besides the WEC giving elite featherweights a chance to fight in a big show.
Uno vs. Ishida- As much as I hate Caol Uno, its good that Ishida is out of the tournament. I think Kawajiri was fighting tentatively with the thought that he would have to fight hit teammate Ishida at some point, but now I think Kawajiri will be a little more aggressive in trying to win the grand prix. Uno did look good with good standup and good takedown defense, Ishida basically had no answer for Uno's gameplan. I think Ishida needs to drop to 145 where he could outwrestle anyone, hes a very good fighter but guys like Frankie Edgar and Ishida can only get to a cetain level at 155.
Alvarez vs. Hansen- I have to say I'm very proud I called this fight perfectly. Alvarez did exactly what I thought he would do in out muscling Hansen with strong takedowns and battering him with quick hands, he even had a nice head kick at the end of the fight. Hansen did fight back though, he had great submission attempts and fought back on the feet. I said this fight could be fight of the year, theres a chance it could be, but there are seven more months left this year and many more fights to come.
Kawajiri vs. Buscape- Basically went exactly as I thought, Kawajiri pounded on Buscape, it was good to see him more aggressive than his last fight, but Kawajiri should be able to finish fights like this. Hopefully was Kawajiri fights Caol Uno he will be motivated through bad blood to go for a finish. And Buscape, he's a good fighter, but in marquee matchups he just doesn't come through.
Mayhem vs. Shibata- Mayhem did what I thought he would, he came out goofy and beat the shit out of the can he was fighting. Hopefully next round of the tournament Mayhem will fight a more serious opponent.
Melvin Manhoef vs. Dae Won Kim- Melvin Manhoef should not have been fighting. He got knocked out two weeks ago by Remy Bonjasky, hes still bruised and recovering. The fact that judoka Dae Won Kim almost knocked him out is scary, Manhoef was obviously still shaky from getting KO'd. He did manage to pull out the win, but he should not have been rocked in the fight.
Jung Bu-Kyung vs. Daisuke Nakamura- I'm not that surprised Nakamura won, he does have much more experience that Bu-Kyung, but I am a little disappointed in the Korean judoka's performance. I think Bu-Kyung could have done better in the fight, and I hope he doesn't give up on MMA quite yet. Nakamura showed he has good skills, but beating Kyung on the feet doesn't solidifiy him as top talent.
Diaz vs. Inoue- Nick Diaz won a quick boxing match. It was good to see Nick Diaz looking a little faster, I think hes much better at 167 than 160, I think the weight cut makes him a little too sluggish. He also displayed a much better attitude in the fight, something that was good to see. Inoue was tough, he was scrappy, but he didn't have the skills to hang in there with a good fighter in Diaz. I am very excited to see Diaz fight Hayato "Mach" Sakurai in July, I think that will be a great fight.
Maruyama vs. Yamazaki- I got this fight wrong as I didn't know much about either fighter. I underestimated team Grabaka fighter Yamazaki, he was able to get the fight to the ground and use superior skills to maintain dominant position and go for submissions. Its also great that Dream is planning on showcasing the 145 division, there are some really great fighters in that weight class and it will be nice to see another organization besides the WEC giving elite featherweights a chance to fight in a big show.
Cage Rage 26 pt. 2
I have yet to see any of the fights from Cage Rage 26, but from what I can tell it was a pretty decent event. I went 9 for 10 in my fight picks, the only fight I got wrong was Ross Pointon, I was surprised he won and very surprised he won my a heel hook. Most of the fights I broke down pretty well, I got a bunch of finishes wrong though. I haven't seen any fights yet so its hard to comment, once I find some of them online I'll be back with some thoughts.
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Dream.3 Breakdown
Sorry I couldn't get these up yesterday, but here are my picks for Dream 3
Shoji Maruyama vs. Takeshi Yamazaki- This is a pretty good fight for being announced the week before the card takes place. Maruyama is a decent fighter, 6-2-1 record, and Grabaka fighter Yamazaki is better than his 13-7-2 record as those losses include solid fighters in Mike Brown, Tatsuya Kawajiri, and Mazakatsu Imanari. This is the classic striker vs. grappler matchup, and in this case I'm going with Maruyama, I think he will punish Yamazaki on the fight and take a convincing decision. Maruyama was able to go to a decision with hot prospect Jose Aldo, and since Aldo was unable to submit him i doubt Yamazaki will be able to.
Nick Diaz vs. Katsuya Inoue- Most people would say Nick Diaz by whatever he wants, I tend to agree, I'll go with a TKO in the first round. Katsuya Inoue isn't a bad fighter, he just doesn't perform well when he takes a step up in competition, as he has losses toAkira Kikuchi, Yoshiyuki Yoshida, and Eiji Ishikawa. Nick Diaz will simply outclass him.
Jung Bu Kyung vs. Daisuke Nakamura- Finally Jung Bu Kyung is given a break, his 0-2 record includes losses to top ten fighters in Mitsuhiro Ishida and Shinya Aoki. He has showed very good ground skills, especially against Aoki whom he almost armbarred at the Yarenoka show. The Olympic silver medalist will face off against Daisuke Nakamura, a decent fighter but lacking in quality wins. Jung Bu-Kyung will win in the first round by armbar, appeasing his trainer Dong Sik Yoon. Watch out for this Korean judoka, he has some serious skills.
Melvin Manhoef vs. Dae Won Kim- Classic striker vs. grappler, since Manhoef has more MMA experience he should take the fight by brutal KO in the first round. Dae Won Kim did just beat Marcelo Garcia, but Manhoef is a much bigger fighter and he will punish Dae Won Kim in a very short stoppage.
Jason Miller vs. Katsuyori Shibata- Shibata is not very good, and Mayhem is. Mayhem by first round submission and better entrance.
Caol Uno vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida- Caol Uno is a good fighter, he has good standup and solid ground skills. However, Ishida is a far better wrestler with good submission defense. Ishida will win a decision as usual in dominant fashion.
Tastuya Kawajiri vs. Luis Firmino- Luis "Buscape" looked good in his last fight against Kazuyuki Miyata, but Kawajiri is a better, more experienced fighter. Although Kawajiri should be able to pound out Buscape, he hasn't looked agressive lately, and so he will take a very solid decision.
Eddie Alvarez vs. Joachim Hansen- By far the best match up on the card, I really think this fight has potential for fight of the year. Alvarez has good standup, cardio, and wrestling and he looks great since dropping to 155. Hansen is dangerous with powerful knees and good wrestling but he isn't very technical and he mainly relies on his physical presence. That is not going to work for Hansen, he is going to be outsized by Alvarez, who looks very powerful a 155. Alvarez will get his takedowns, the question is if he can stay out of Hansen's submissions, as Hansen has shown slick ground skills and a very good guard. I think he can, I think Alvarez will break into the top ten with a decision win over Hansen.
I believe this card with be live on HD Net at about 3 in the morning. I don't have HD Net, but if you have it try and watch it or tape it or DVR or whatever, these are going to be good fights, especially the Hansen vs. Alvarez fight. I'll be back tomorrow my take on the Cage Rage and Dream cards.
Shoji Maruyama vs. Takeshi Yamazaki- This is a pretty good fight for being announced the week before the card takes place. Maruyama is a decent fighter, 6-2-1 record, and Grabaka fighter Yamazaki is better than his 13-7-2 record as those losses include solid fighters in Mike Brown, Tatsuya Kawajiri, and Mazakatsu Imanari. This is the classic striker vs. grappler matchup, and in this case I'm going with Maruyama, I think he will punish Yamazaki on the fight and take a convincing decision. Maruyama was able to go to a decision with hot prospect Jose Aldo, and since Aldo was unable to submit him i doubt Yamazaki will be able to.
Nick Diaz vs. Katsuya Inoue- Most people would say Nick Diaz by whatever he wants, I tend to agree, I'll go with a TKO in the first round. Katsuya Inoue isn't a bad fighter, he just doesn't perform well when he takes a step up in competition, as he has losses toAkira Kikuchi, Yoshiyuki Yoshida, and Eiji Ishikawa. Nick Diaz will simply outclass him.
Jung Bu Kyung vs. Daisuke Nakamura- Finally Jung Bu Kyung is given a break, his 0-2 record includes losses to top ten fighters in Mitsuhiro Ishida and Shinya Aoki. He has showed very good ground skills, especially against Aoki whom he almost armbarred at the Yarenoka show. The Olympic silver medalist will face off against Daisuke Nakamura, a decent fighter but lacking in quality wins. Jung Bu-Kyung will win in the first round by armbar, appeasing his trainer Dong Sik Yoon. Watch out for this Korean judoka, he has some serious skills.
Melvin Manhoef vs. Dae Won Kim- Classic striker vs. grappler, since Manhoef has more MMA experience he should take the fight by brutal KO in the first round. Dae Won Kim did just beat Marcelo Garcia, but Manhoef is a much bigger fighter and he will punish Dae Won Kim in a very short stoppage.
Jason Miller vs. Katsuyori Shibata- Shibata is not very good, and Mayhem is. Mayhem by first round submission and better entrance.
Caol Uno vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida- Caol Uno is a good fighter, he has good standup and solid ground skills. However, Ishida is a far better wrestler with good submission defense. Ishida will win a decision as usual in dominant fashion.
Tastuya Kawajiri vs. Luis Firmino- Luis "Buscape" looked good in his last fight against Kazuyuki Miyata, but Kawajiri is a better, more experienced fighter. Although Kawajiri should be able to pound out Buscape, he hasn't looked agressive lately, and so he will take a very solid decision.
Eddie Alvarez vs. Joachim Hansen- By far the best match up on the card, I really think this fight has potential for fight of the year. Alvarez has good standup, cardio, and wrestling and he looks great since dropping to 155. Hansen is dangerous with powerful knees and good wrestling but he isn't very technical and he mainly relies on his physical presence. That is not going to work for Hansen, he is going to be outsized by Alvarez, who looks very powerful a 155. Alvarez will get his takedowns, the question is if he can stay out of Hansen's submissions, as Hansen has shown slick ground skills and a very good guard. I think he can, I think Alvarez will break into the top ten with a decision win over Hansen.
I believe this card with be live on HD Net at about 3 in the morning. I don't have HD Net, but if you have it try and watch it or tape it or DVR or whatever, these are going to be good fights, especially the Hansen vs. Alvarez fight. I'll be back tomorrow my take on the Cage Rage and Dream cards.
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